Performing trend analysis in 3D Analyst

Trend is a global polynomial interpolation that fits a smooth surface defined by a mathematical function, a polynomial, to the input sample points. The Trend surface changes gradually and captures coarse-scale patterns in the data.

Conceptually, Trend interpolation is like taking a piece of paper and fitting it between the raised points (raised to the height of value). The following illustrates a set of sample points of elevation taken on a gently sloping hill (the piece of paper is magenta).

But a flat piece of paper will not accurately capture a landscape containing a valley. However, if you are allowed to bend the piece of paper once, you will get a much better fit. Adding a term to the mathematical formula produces a similar result, a bend in the plane. A flat plane (no bend in the piece of paper) is a first-order polynomial (linear). Allowing for one bend is a second-order polynomial (quadratic), two bends a third-order (cubic), and so on; up to 12 are allowed in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. The following conceptually illustrates a second-order polynomial fitted to a valley.

The piece of paper will rarely pass through the actual measured points, making Trend interpolation an inexact interpolator. Some points will be above the piece of paper and others will be below. However, if you add up how much higher each point is above the piece of paper and add up how much lower each point is below the piece of paper, the two sums should be similar. The surface, given in magenta, is obtained by using a least-squares regression fit. The resulting surface minimizes the squared differences among the raised values and the sheet of paper.

The lower the root mean squared (RMS) error, the more closely the interpolated surface represents the input points. The most common order of polynomials are 1 through 3. Trend surface interpolation creates smooth surfaces.

When to use the Trend interpolation

The result from Trend interpolation is a smooth surface that represents gradual trends in the surface over the area of interest.

Trend interpolation is best used for:

• Fitting a surface to the sample points when the surface varies slowly from region to region over the area of interest (for example, pollution over an industrial area).
• Examining and/or removing the effects of long range or global trends. In such circumstances, the technique is often referred to as trend surface analysis.

Trend interpolation creates a slowly varying surface using low order polynomials that possibly describe some physical process (for example, pollution and wind direction). However, it should be noted that the more complex the polynomial, the more difficult it is to ascribe physical meaning to it. Furthermore, the calculated surfaces are highly susceptible to outliers (extremely high and low values), especially at the edges.